A Mild Winter Is Headed Our Way, says NOAA

NOAA predicting mild winter in New England – Boston News, Weather, Sports

NOAA releases 2018-19 Winter Outlook

"Up in ME the forecast is actually what we call "equal chances", which means there's no tilt in those odds, so it's just as likely to be a wetter-than-normal winter as a drier-than-normal winter", says Halpert.

Additionally, El Nino has a 70 to 75 percent chance of developing.

There's a lot more than just an El Nino pattern that determines how winter will play out.

States from the Pacific Northwest through the Northern Plains and into the Northeast are likely to see above-average temperatures, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center reported.

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The prospect of stormy conditions in the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic means it has the greatest chance of having colder-than-normal conditions of anywhere in the country, Halpert said. This is more of an overarching forecast of how the three winter months could average out.

The outlook does not include seasonal snowfall accumulations, but it is being predicted that New England, similar to last year's forecast, has an equal chance of seeing above, near, or below normal precipitation.

What will determine just how wet the Carolinas' winter could be is El Niño, "an ocean-atmosphere climate interaction that is linked to periodic warming in sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific".

In fact, Halper said, nowhere in the U.S.is expected to be colder than normal; continuing a national trend over the past several years.

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The Carolinas should also look out for the "Arcitc Ocillation", which NOAA says determines "the number of arctic air masses that penetrate into the South" and could lead to below-average temperatures.

For those looking for snowfall projections, you won't find those in NOAA's winter outlook. The northern half stays drier while the southern half gets extra precipitation.

Meantime, drier-than-average conditions are expected for the Great Lakes and portions of the Northern Rockies and the Northern Plains.

From December to February the temperature is above average (for this period) is expected in the Western, southeastern, Central and northwestern States, as well as in Hawaii and even in Alaska.

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