OPEC sees strong oil market, possible need for more output

Oil rises ahead of OPEC, pressured by China tariffs

Oil Drops in Choppy Trade Ahead of OPEC Meeting

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was down 0.6% to $74.92 a barrel on London's ICE Futures exchange.

Against a very uncertain oil sector backdrop, OPEC's own analysis suggests that the cartel may well have to raise production to meet rising oil demand.

By contrast, Saudi Arabia, the cartel's biggest producer and a fierce regional rival to Iran, could have the room to increase output more — and make more money — to make up for the shortfall in countries like Iran.

The move would effectively wipe out existing production cuts of 1.8 million bpd, which have helped rebalance the market in the past 18 months and lifted oil prices to almost $80 per barrel from as low as $27 in 2016. U.S. President Donald Trump has continued to criticize OPEC on his Twitter account.

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"Looking ahead, I remain optimistic that we will fulfil our goal of delivering sustainable oil market stability, which is meant to serve the long term interests of producers, consumers and the global economy", Al Mazrouei said in a statement issued by the ministry ahead of 174th Meeting of the OPEC Conference next week in Vienna, Austria.

Lower crude oil prices are of course helpful for India.

In the background, global demand for oil continues to rise, with the International Energy Agency saying it is expected to grow by 1.4 Mbpd next year.

"But to that extent, the development coming ahead of the Opec meeting adds to the nervousness in the oil markets", he said. It appears that OPEC could increase production, and if they do that will bring a lot more supply onto the marketplace.

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Due to the staunch opposition to any production increase from the faction led by Iran and Venezuela, analysts expect this week's OPEC meeting to be a very hard one, comparing it to the 2011 meeting, which the then Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi described as "the worst OPEC meeting of all time", Commerzbank commodities analyst Carsten Fritsch told Reuters.

OPEC members are discussing a compromise agreement that would see an oil production increase of 300,000-600,000 barrels per day over the next few months, according to people briefed on the talks, Bloomberg reported. Several OPEC countries are not able to increase the production.

On Saturday, Novak said he and his Saudi counterpart Khalid al-Falih had agreed to propose to the group to up production by 1.5 million bpd beginning in July. China said it would impose tarrifs on a variety of U.S. goods, including crude and gasoline, in response to President Donald Trump's $50 billion levy on Chinese imports.

On commodity markets oil plunged again after taking a battering last week as investors fret over Russian Federation and Saudi Arabia's expected move to ramp up output at an OPEC meeting that starts Friday.

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Falih said the oil market had now rebalanced and his aim was to prevent a shortage of crude in future that could squeeze the market. Meanwhile, traders are trying to digest the impact from both the USA and China issuing tarrifs on goods and the threat of a broader trade war between the world's two largest economies.

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