Oil gains as producers say market is re-balancing

SINGAPORE Petroleumworld 09 22 2017

Oil down

Brent crude rose to the highest in more than seven months after OPEC and Russian Federation said they were well on the way to clearing a global glut, while traders eyed the potential for supply disruption from the Kurdish independence vote.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and several other producers have cut production by about 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) since the start of 2017.

Technological improvements and greater efficiency has helped US shale producers pump out crude oil at lower margins - some say it is now profitable at less than $50 per barrel.

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-November Nymex light, sweet crude on the New York Mercantile Exchange was recently down 0.2% at $50.55 a barrel in the Globex trading session, while ICE Brent fell 6 cents to $56.80.

Rising production from the two exempt OPEC members-chiefly from Libya-has indeed slowed down the oil price improvement that OPEC targeted with its agreement.

Iraqi Oil Minister Jabbar al-Luaibi said on Tuesday an extension by OPEC certainly was on the cards and Algerian Energy Minister Mustapha Guitouni concurred. While demand has yet to catch up to elevated supplies, rebounding economies in Europe and steady economic growth in the USA could at least keep oil prices steady around current levels in the second half of 2017.

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The higher price of oil is also expected to translate into higher prices at petrol pumps, which could push inflation above 3%. On Friday it said the reduction had helped to lift oil prices by about 15% in the past three months. Nigeria will be prepared to cap its crude production when it has stabilised at 1.8 million barrels per day, he said.

Brent has risen by 36 percent so far in the third quarter, and is set for its strongest performance between July and September since 2004. Backwardation also signals immediate market strength while contango shows traders prefer to store oil in the hope of fetching a higher price for later delivery.

After a recent rise in worldwide crude oil prices due to reduced supply, CPC's average price for crude oil was calculated at US$55.02 per barrel this week, up from US$53.7 per barrel last week, according to its website.

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