Crude oil prices extend rally, but it might not last

Oil prices rise to 2-week high on dip in US output

Oil prices rise to 2-week high on dip in US output  30 Jun 2017- 0:00

Monday marks the eighth straight day the commodity has risen, which would mark the longest win streak since 2010, according to a tweet from CNBC's Carl Quintanilla.

"I think the extent to which Saudi Arabia bled revenue during 2014-2016 forced them back to the OPEC table before the job of really turning the screw on USA shale and other non-OPEC supply was completed", said David Fyfe, chief economist at trading firm Gunvor.

"It looks like oil has bottomed", Phil Flynn, a senior market analyst for the PRICE Futures Group in Chicago, said in a daily emailed newsletter.

However, there's no denying that the USA still remains awash with excess oil that is derailing bulk of the OPEC-led cuts aimed at rebalancing the market.

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"The combination of the falling rig count, along with the drop in USA oil production is signaling to the market that maybe we will see [an extended] pullback in USA production", said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Price Futures Group.

And rising output from Nigeria and Libya is also undermining OPEC's efforts to work off the supply glut that has weighed on the oil market for three years, analysts at Commerzbank said.

But fresh US data late last week has raised some investors' hopes that the resurgence of USA crude production may not be unstoppable.

USA crude production fell for the first time this year in April, reining in exuberance over rapidly growing domestic output.

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The current situation is that stock of crude oil rose to 118,000 barrels over the past week and simultaneously production dipped by 100,000 barrels a day. 2020 could see a secular recovery in the oil market.

New data showed the first decline in the number of active USA oil rigs in 24 weeks and fed expectations for further reductions in crude production. Seven percent see geopolitical threats as a bigger factor affecting prices, and six percent expect OPEC will be the greatest influence in the second half of the year.

Markets continue to be oversupplied as production from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries hit a high for 2017. The growing concern is that rising Non-Opec output, led by the USA is increasingly offsetting the reduced Opec production. The global benchmark is down about 9 percent this quarter and traded at a premium of $1.85 to WTI. But a quick check from BSP's data show that remittances from the Middle East remain healthy, growing at 4.2 percent for the first four months of the year.

Saudi Arabian crude, for the most part, comes from the titanic Ghawar field and a few other large deposits, meaning imports from the Kingdom are relatively consistent in grade.

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Output is 1.005 million barrels a day, according to a person with direct knowledge of the situation, who asked not to be identified because they aren't authorized to speak to the media.

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